Posts Tagged ‘Home Prices’

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S&P Case-Shiller: Home Prices Gain in August


2016
10.27

Home prices gained in August per the 20-City S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Analysts said that home values continue to expand in spite of challenges including low inventories of available homes and strict mortgage qualification requirements.

National Home Price Index Near 2006 Peak

According to the national Case-Shiller Home Price Index, August home prices are 0.10 percent below their 2006 peak and all metro areas in the 20-City Home Price Index posted gains. Top gains in the 20-City Home Price Index were posted by Portland, Oregon with a year-over-year gain of 11.70 percent, Seattle, Washington home prices gained 11.40 percent and Denver, Colorado home prices gained 8.80 percent year-over-year.

All metro areas included in the 20-City Index posted year-over-year gains in excess of one percent. New York City had the lowest year-over-year price gain with a year-over-year reading of 1.70 percent in August. Washington, D.C. home prices rose 2.30 percent year-over-year. Home prices in the Cleveland, Ohio metro area increased by 2.90 percent year-over-year.

New Housing Bubble Unlikely

With home price gains close to peak prices seen before the housing bubble burst, concerns may arise over the potential for a new housing bubble to occur in coming months. Analysts say this is unlikely as home buyers are not taking out extreme levels of mortgage debt seen at the onset of the Great Recession. David M. Blitzer, chairman of the S&P Index Committee, said “There is no reason to fear another massive collapse is around the corner. The run-up to the financial crisis was marked with both rising home prices and rapid growth in mortgage debt.”

Possible Fed Rate Hike Won’t Cause Mortgage Rates to Explode

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve is expected to raise the Fed’s target federal funds rate in December. This action will lead to interest rate increases for consumer credit and mortgages, but not at levels that would make mortgage loans suddenly unaffordable. While gradual increases in federal interest rates would cause mortgage rates to rise over time, market conditions and related factors could potentially cause home prices to slow or even dip in some areas. Regional influences including employment and demand for homes are examples of factors contributing to home price growth or decline in specific areas.

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S&P Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in July


2016
10.06

Home prices dipped slightly in July according to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. Year-over-year, home price growth dipped to 5.00 percent from June’s reading of 5.10 percent. The Pacific Northwest led the nation in home price appreciation. Portland, Oregon had the highest year-over-year home price growth with a rate of 12.40 percent. Seattle, Washington posted year-over-year home price growth of 11.20 percent. Denver, Colorado was third with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 9.40 percent.

Home prices in San Francisco, California slowed; year-over-year, home prices grew by 6.00 percent in contrast to home price growth topping the 20-city index in recent months. Analysts observed that cooling home prices in San Francisco could represent the end of the area’s housing bubble.

Year-over-year home price growth was lowest in New York, New York with a reading of 1.70 percent. Washington, D.C. posted a year-over-year reading of 2.00 percent; Cleveland, Ohio posted a year-over-year home price growth rate of 2.50 percent.

MonthtoMonth Home Price Growth Provides Surprises

The largest month-to-month gains in home prices were posted by Portland, Oregon at 1.20 percent, Denver, Colorado with a reading of 0.90 percent and Detroit, Michigan with a July reading of 0.80 percent. While year-over-year home price growth readings are less volatile than month-to-month readings, signs of increasing home values in cities with depressed home price growth rates are a positive sign.

On the other hand, San Francisco, California posted a flat reading for month-to-month growth after recently topping year-over-year readings in the 20-City Home Price Index. With skyrocketing prices and limited inventories of available homes, it appears that San Francisco home prices may have reached their upward limit.

David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chair of the S&P Index Committee, said that July’s readings indicate further improvement of the economy and housing markets. This progress could prove difficult to sustain as house prices continue to outpace wages and rising home prices continue to sideline first-time buyers. Slim supplies of homes for sale are creating higher-than-average demand for homes that fuels rapidly rising home prices. This further complicates home purchase options for home buyers who compete with investors and others who are able to meet or exceed asking prices and purchase homes with cash.

Home buyers requiring mortgages have been supported by relatively low mortgage rates, but strict mortgage credit standards continue to provide obstacles for credit-challenged buyers. Financial institutions continue to take a conservative stance on mortgage lending after sustaining severe losses and government ridicule in the wake of the Great Recession.

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 5, 2016


2016
07.05

Closing Paperwork: How to Read and Understand the Truth-in-Lending Disclosure StatementLast week’s economic events included S&P Case-Shiller’s Housing Market Indices for April along with reports on Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales. Consumer Confidence was higher in June in spite of low wage growth and inflation well below the Fed’s goal of 2.00 percent annually.

S&P Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Ticks Downward

April home values grew by 5.40 percent in April on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Case Shiller reported a drop in momentum from the March reading of 5.50 percent according to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. While no city included in the 20-City Index reported lower home values, the rate of growth appears to be slowing. High home prices driven by high demand and slim inventories of available homes may continue to lose steam as high home prices coupled with stricter mortgage requirements sideline first-time and moderate income buyers.

Pending home sales in May saw their first decline since August 2015 According to the National Association of Realtors®, Pending sales dropped from April’s downwardly revised index reading of 115.0 to 110.8. Pending home sales were -3.70 percent lower in May as compared to April’s reading of +3.90 percent. The drop in pending sales, which represents homes under contract that are not yet closed, is largely blamed on markedly low inventories of homes for sale in many areas.

Construction spending was higher in May, but remained in negative territory with a reading of -0.80 percent as compared to expectations of +0.50 percent and April’s reading of -2.00 percent. While the overall reading appears unremarkable, residential construction spending was 5.30 percent higher in May.

Mortgage Rates Lower, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates in the aftermath of Great Britain’s vote to leave the EU. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.48 percent.15-year mortgage rates averaged 2.78 percent and the average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was 2.70 percent. Discount points were also lower at 0.50, 0.40 and 0.50 percent respectively.

Jobless reports jumped due to the end of the school year; New York State in particular allows some workers to file jobless claims when schools are closed. 268,000 new jobless claims were filed as compared to expectations of 265,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 258,000 new claims.

Consumer confidence rose in June, but consumers were surveyed before the Brexit vote. Consumer confidence increased to 98.0 in June as compared to May’s index reading of 92.40.Stronger job markets and stabilized gas prices were seen as contributing factors that boosted consumer confidence.

What’s Ahead

Next week’s scheduled economic reports include several labor-related reports including Non-Farm Payrolls, ADP Payrolls, June’s national unemployment rate and minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting. Freddie Mac’s survey of mortgage rates and weekly jobless claims will also be released.

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Case-Shiller Report Shows Home Prices Rose in January


2016
03.30

Case-Shiller Report Shows Home Prices Rose in JanuaryHome prices were 5.70 percent higher year-over-year in January according to S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index. Top year-over-year gains were posted by Portland, Oregon at 11.80 percent, San Francisco, California at 10.80 percent and Seattle Washington posted a year-over-year gain of 10.70 percent. Denver, Colorado, which had top gains in recent months, posted year-over-year home price growth of 10.20 percent.

Lowest year over-year gains for January were posted by Chicago, Illinois at 2.10 percent, Washington, D.C at 2.20 percent and New York, New York at 2.80 percent.

Average home prices remained about 12 percent below their summer 2006 peak, but have recovered to 2007 levels.

Rising Home Prices and Short Inventory of Homes Impacts Buyers and Sellers

David M Blitzer, Managing Director and Chair of the S&P Indices Committee expressed concerns over rapidly rising home prices and the shortage of available homes. Mr. Blitzer said “would-be sellers seeking to trade up are having a hard time finding a new larger home.” Analysts also noted that home prices are escalating faster than wages, which were growing at a rate of 2.20 percent annually as of February.

New construction is not keeping up with demand; the current supply of available homes is below the normal six month inventory. Mr. Blitzer said that home building is the segment of the housing sector that creates economic growth.

Rapidly rising home prices and low inventories of available homes are potentially sidelining first-time and moderate income buyers. This trend also sandwiches homeowners who want to buy larger homes between a short supply of available homes and finding qualified buyers for their current homes. Mr. Blitzer said that high amounts of education debt and consumer debt are contributing to younger buyers’ inability to qualify for mortgages. Mortgage lenders have loosened mortgage qualification requirements somewhat, but Mr. Blitzer said that lenders haven’t forgotten what happened 10 years ago; they remain reluctant to further ease lending requirements.

Pending Home Sales Rise in February

In related news, the National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales rose 3.50 percent in February as compared to an expected reading of 1.80 percent and January’s negative reading of -3.0 percent February’s reading for pending home sales was the highest in seven months.

Analysts and real estate pros use pending home sales readings s as indications of future closings and mortgage loan activity.

NAR Chairman Lawrence Yun cited lower mortgage rates as the driving force behind February’s jump in pending home sales. Mr. Yun said that building more homes is essential for boosting home sales; he cautioned that failure to increase the current supply of available homes could cause home sales to “plateau.”

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December Home Prices Rise According To S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index


2016
02.25

December Home Prices Rise According To S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndexHome prices rose slightly in December according to S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released Tuesday. According to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, which covers cities representing all nine US Census divisions, home prices rose 5.40 percent year-over-year in December as compared to November’s reading of 5.20 percent.

December’s year-over-year home price increases were led by Portland Oregon at 11.40 percent, San Francisco, California at 10.30 percent and Denver, Colorado with a year-over-year reading of 10.20 percent. 10 cities reported higher home prices while eight cities reported lower home prices and year-over-year home prices were unchanged for two cities.

Year-over-year national home prices equaled winter 2007 home price levels, The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index has recovered by 36.30 percent since March 2012. Phoenix, Arizona posted its 12th consecutive month of home price gains for the longest streak of price gains in 2015.

Home Price Growth Surpasses Core Inflation Rate

David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that while home prices continue to rise, they are rising at a slower pace. All but one city (Washington, D.C.) posted home price gains higher than the core inflation rate of 2.20 percent. Home prices rising faster than inflation is positive for home sellers, but would-be-buyers may sit on the sidelines due to concerns about affordability. On the plus side, job markets are strong and mortgage rates remain low, which will likely encourage more first-time and moderate income buyers to enter the market.

S&P Case-Shiller Month-to-Month Readings

After seasonal adjustments, both the Case-Shiller 10 and 20 City home price indices posted a month-to-month gain of 0.80 percent. 19 of 20 cities posted month-to-month gains after seasonal adjustments. Factors contributing to higher home prices include high demand for homes coupled with a short supply of available homes. Home builders are ramping up construction, which should ease demand and help stabilize prices.

In related news, The National Association of Realtors reported that January sales of existing homes rose to 5.47 million sales on an annual basis as compared to expectations of 5.30 million sales and December’s reading of 5.45 million sales. January’s reading was 11 percent higher year-over-year and indicated that homes are selling in spite of rapidly rising prices in many areas.

Analysts said that the shortage of homes is causing an imbalance in market conditions; currently there is a four month supply of available homes as compared to an average six month supply of available homes. There have been only three instances when home supplies were lower in the past 16 years.

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Case-Shiller Home Prices: San Francisco, Denver see Double-Digit Increases


2015
05.27

Case Shiller Home Prices San Francisco Denver see Double Digit IncreasesSan Francisco, California where home prices rose 10.30 percent year over year in March, and Denver, Colorado with an even 10 percent gain in year-over-year home prices led the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index for March. Rounding out the top-five cities for year-over-year home price growth were Dallas Texas at 9.30 percent, Miami, Florida at 8.70 percent and Tampa, Florida with a year-over-year average gain in home prices at 8.10 percent. San Francisco’s reading for March was the first double-digit increase in home prices since last July.

The five lowest year-over-year price gains occurred in Washington, D.C. and Cleveland, Ohio tied at gains of 1.0 percent, New York City with a year-over-year gain of 2.70 percent, Minneapolis, Minnesota with a gain of 3.00 percent and Phoenix, Arizona with a year-over-year increase of 3.10 percent.

Overall, the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose by 5.0 percent year-over-year and by 0.90 percent in March. Analysts said that while home prices remain 16 percent below their pre-recession peaks, home prices are 31 higher than the lows recorded in March 2012.

When asked if house prices are in a bubble, David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P Index Committee said that “The only way to tell if housing prices were in a bubble is looking back after it’s over.” Mr. Blitzer said that adjusted for inflation, home prices have increased on average by one percent per month since 1975, and that the current 4.10 percent monthly growth of home prices could suggest a bubble. Mr. Blitzer cautioned that home price increases are outpacing increases in personal income and national wage growth, a circumstance which reduces the pool of potential home buyers due to affordability issues.

FHFA House Price Index Posts 5.2 Percent Gain Year-Over-Year

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported that as of March, prices for homes connected with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages rose by 5.20 percent year-over-year. The agency also said that average home prices increased by 1.30 percent in the first quarter of 2015.

Home prices were 5.0 percent higher in the first quarter of 2015 than for the first quarter of 2014. This data is consistent with the unrelated Case-Shiller home price data for March. FHFA reported that home prices rose in 48 states between the first quarters of 2014 and 2015. The states with the top rates of year-over-year home price growth were:

Colorado 11.20 percent

Nevada 10.10 percent

Florida 8.70 percent

Washington 7.60 percent

California 7.50 percent

The Mountain Division led the nine Census Bureau Divisions in home price growth with a growth rate of 2.60 percent in the first quarter and a year-over-year growth rate of 6.80 percent.

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Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slower in November


2015
01.28

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slower in November

Case-Shiller Home Price Index reports for November indicate that home price growth continues to slow. The 20-City Home Price Index dropped by 0.20 percent to November’s reading of 4.30 percent year-over-year. 

The five cities with highest year-over-year home price growth rates in November were:

San Francisco, California 8.90%

Miami, Florida 8.60%

Las Vegas, Nevada and Dallas, Texas 7.70%

Denver, Colorado 7.50%

The five cities with the lowest year-over-year growth in home prices were:

Cleveland, Ohio 0.60%

Washington, DC 1.90%

New York, New York and Minneapolis, Minnesota 1.50%

Chicago, Illinois 2.00%

There were no instances of year-over-year depreciation in home prices for the year-over-year readings, but month-to-month readings indicated that slower momentum in year-over-year home prices is producing negative home price readings on a month-to-month basis. First the good news; although no city included in the 20-City Home Price Index had month-to-month home prices increases of one percent or more, there were some gains.

Month-to-Month Home Price Readings Mixed

According to the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for November, 12 cities posted month-to-month gains for home prices and eight cities saw home prices decline from October to November.

The five cities with the highest month to month home price growth in November were:

Tampa, Florida 0.80%

Miami, Florida 0.60%

Las Vegas Nevada 0.50%

Los Angeles and San Diego, California 0.50%

San Francisco, which led year-over-year home price growth rates for November, posted a month-to-month gain of 0.10 percent.

The five cities with the highest declines in month-to-month home price growth were:

Chicago, Illinois -1.10%

Detroit, Michigan -0.90%

New York, New York -0.80%

Minneapolis, Minnesota -0.70%

Washington, DC -0.50%

In spite of gloomy month-to-month readings for November home prices for cities included in the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price report, overall signs of economic growth persist. In separate reports released Tuesday, The Department of Commerce reported that December sales of new homes rose by 11.60 percent year-over-year.

481,000 newly constructed homes were sold in December as compared to expectations of 455,000 new homes sold and November’s reading of 431,000 sales of new homes in November.

Home Sales Should Continue to Increase with Warmer Weather

As warmer weather approaches, it’s likely that overall home sales will continue to increase. Stronger job markets, low mortgage rates and the possibility of relaxing mortgage standards likely contributed to a jump in consumer confidence for January.

Consumer confidence increased from December’s index reading of 93.10 to 102.90, which was the highest reading since August 2007. Analysts had forecasted an index reading of 96.90 for January. Expectations of wage growth, which has been largely flat post-recession, were seen a significant contribution to January’s boost in consumer confidence. 

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Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slower in November


2015
01.28

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slower in November

Case-Shiller Home Price Index reports for November indicate that home price growth continues to slow. The 20-City Home Price Index dropped by 0.20 percent to November’s reading of 4.30 percent year-over-year. 

The five cities with highest year-over-year home price growth rates in November were:

San Francisco, California 8.90%

Miami, Florida 8.60%

Las Vegas, Nevada and Dallas, Texas 7.70%

Denver, Colorado 7.50%

The five cities with the lowest year-over-year growth in home prices were:

Cleveland, Ohio 0.60%

Washington, DC 1.90%

New York, New York and Minneapolis, Minnesota 1.50%

Chicago, Illinois 2.00%

There were no instances of year-over-year depreciation in home prices for the year-over-year readings, but month-to-month readings indicated that slower momentum in year-over-year home prices is producing negative home price readings on a month-to-month basis. First the good news; although no city included in the 20-City Home Price Index had month-to-month home prices increases of one percent or more, there were some gains.

Month-to-Month Home Price Readings Mixed

According to the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for November, 12 cities posted month-to-month gains for home prices and eight cities saw home prices decline from October to November.

The five cities with the highest month to month home price growth in November were:

Tampa, Florida 0.80%

Miami, Florida 0.60%

Las Vegas Nevada 0.50%

Los Angeles and San Diego, California 0.50%

San Francisco, which led year-over-year home price growth rates for November, posted a month-to-month gain of 0.10 percent.

The five cities with the highest declines in month-to-month home price growth were:

Chicago, Illinois -1.10%

Detroit, Michigan -0.90%

New York, New York -0.80%

Minneapolis, Minnesota -0.70%

Washington, DC -0.50%

In spite of gloomy month-to-month readings for November home prices for cities included in the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price report, overall signs of economic growth persist. In separate reports released Tuesday, The Department of Commerce reported that December sales of new homes rose by 11.60 percent year-over-year.

481,000 newly constructed homes were sold in December as compared to expectations of 455,000 new homes sold and November’s reading of 431,000 sales of new homes in November.

Home Sales Should Continue to Increase with Warmer Weather

As warmer weather approaches, it’s likely that overall home sales will continue to increase. Stronger job markets, low mortgage rates and the possibility of relaxing mortgage standards likely contributed to a jump in consumer confidence for January.

Consumer confidence increased from December’s index reading of 93.10 to 102.90, which was the highest reading since August 2007. Analysts had forecasted an index reading of 96.90 for January. Expectations of wage growth, which has been largely flat post-recession, were seen a significant contribution to January’s boost in consumer confidence. 

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Case-Shiller Home Prices: Price Growth Slows in September


2014
11.26

CaseShiller Home Prices Price Growth Slows in SeptemberAccording to the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, annual home price growth slipped to a seasonally-adjusted rate of 4.80 percent in September. This was 0.30 percent lower than August’s year-over-year reading of 5.10 percent.

Cities posting the highest year-over-year gains in home prices were Miami, Florida 10.30 percent, Las Vegas, NV with a gain of 9.10 percent, San Francisco, California posted a gain of 7.90 percent, Dallas home prices gained 7.40 percent and home prices increased by 6.70 percent in Portland, Oregon.

David M. Blitzer, chairman of the S&P Dow Jones Index Committee, said that Florida and the Southeastern region showed sustained strength. Citing gains in builder confidence and housing starts and pre-crisis levels for foreclosures and mortgage defaults, Mr. Blitzer said that the outlook for housing in 2015 should be “stable to slightly better.”

Analysts said that higher inventories of available homes had slowed home price growth. Cooling home prices allow more buyers into the market, which creates a better balance between buyers and sellers. Rapidly increasing home prices in late 2013 through early 2014 forced buyers onto the sidelines as investors and cash buyers drove home prices higher and raised demand for available homes.

Cities Post Incremental Month-to-Month Gains

Case-Shiller’s 10-and 20-City Home Price Indices were 15 and 17 percent below their mid-2006 peaks with 18 of 20 cities tracked showing slower growth in September than in August. Top month-to-month gains were incremental, with Miami, Florida and Charlotte, North Carolina gaining 0.60 percent, Las Vegas, Nevada gained 0.40 percent and Dallas, Texas gained 0.30 percent. Denver, Colorado, Tampa, Florida and Portland, Oregon posted month-to-month gains of 0.20 percent.

Cities posting no month-to-month gain included Los Angeles, California and New York City.

The steepest decline in month-to-month home prices was seen in Washington, D.C. at -0.40 percent., followed by Atlanta, Georgia at -0.30 percent San Francisco, California, Atlanta, Georgia, Chicago, Illinois, Detroit, Michigan and Seattle Washington posted month-to-month declines in home prices of -0.20 percent. San Diego, California and Boston, Massachusetts posted declines in month-to-month home prices of -0.10 percent.

FHFA House Price Index Unchanged in September

The Federal Housing Finance Administration posted no gain on its month-to-month reading for September, although analysts had expected a gain of 0.40 percent from August to September. Year-over-year, FHFA reported a 4.50 percent gain in home prices between the third quarter of 2013 and the same period in 2014.

On a positive note, Seasonally-adjusted home prices for purchase-only transactions rose in 40 of 50 states during the third quarter of 2014. The top five states posting the highest annual home price gains were Nevada, Hawaii, California, North Dakota and Florida.

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The 7 Most Unaffordable Cities for Real Estate in the USA (And 3 Affordable Gems!)


2014
07.25

The 7 Most Unaffordable Cities for Real Estate in the USA (And 3 Affordable Gems!)As prices continue to rise across the board with everything from food to gas, it’s no wonder that real estate prices are high in many cities across the USA. While this is the case for a large number of cities, there are also certain areas in which prices are decidedly low. Here’s a small look at the most affordable and unaffordable cities within America.

The Seven Most Unaffordable Cities

Oakland, CA – Though Los Angeles and San Francisco are 2 California cities that may first come to mind, Oakland is also highly expensive when it comes to real estate, with a median home value of nearly $450,000, which is over 100 percent more than the national average.

Los Angeles, CA – Los Angeles is another city in California that is particularly unaffordable. With a median household income of just under $50,000, the exceedingly high median home value of nearly $470,000 is largely galling in its expensiveness.

Boston, MA – The Boston real estate market becomes more unaffordable with each passing year. The median home value within the city is set at well over $350,000. This, combined with the relatively high cost of living, can make for a bleak outlook.

New York City, NY – As one of, if not the most, unaffordable cities in America, NYC is also the most populous city in the country. While the borough of Manhattan is the most expensive for real estate prices, Brooklyn and Queens aren’t much better, while the median home value of the entire city is just over $500,000.

Washington, D.C. – Though the median household income within the city of Washington D.C. is higher than the national average, the median home value sits at a substantial $443,000, with a cost of living over 40 percent above the national average.

San Francisco, CA – Living in San Francisco is extremely unaffordable, though mitigated a bit by higher household incomes. The median home value is likely the highest in the nation, at just over $750,000.

Honolulu, HI – As the capital city of Hawaii, Honolulu is much higher than the national average in everything from utilities to transportation, with the median home value sitting at $547,000.

Three Affordable Alternatives

Cleveland, OH – Though there are a surprising amount of affordable cities in Ohio, Cleveland has a median home value of just over $75,000, well below the state average of $129,000.

Knoxville, TN – Knoxville is a city in Tennessee that combines a generally low median home value of $140,000 with a median household income of just over $60,000, which is much higher than the national average.

Syracuse, NY – If you want to live in New York, but can’t afford the high real estate prices of NYC, the city of Syracuse has a low median home value of just under $80,000.