Comments Off on How The Presidential Election May Impact Mortgage Rates

How The Presidential Election May Impact Mortgage Rates


No matter which candidate win the 2008 Presidential Election, mortgage rates looked poised to riseMore than a handful would-be home buyers stayed on the sidelines this year, waiting for Election Day to pass.

The prevailing thought was that once the new President-Elect was identified, credit markets will systemically unfreeze and housing markets will return to normal.

If history is a guide, this is an unlikely scenario.

Election Day doesn’t figure to alter markets any more in 2008 than it did after the four previous presidential elections.

If anything, post-Election Day market reaction has been muted:

  • 1992 : Dow closes down 0.9 percent the day after Election Day
  • 1996 : Dow closes up 1.6 percent the day after Election Day
  • 2000 : Dow closes down 0.4 percent the day after Election Day
  • 2004 : Dow closes up 1.0 percent the day after Election Day

But just because the stock market has a history of idling on the day after the election doesn’t mean that mortgage rates will rest easy this week. The likely outcome is the opposite, actually.

If investors believe the President-elect will successfully stimulate the economy, stock markets would likely rally, causing mortgage bonds to sell off and mortgage rates to rise.

Or, if investors think the winning candidate will fail to revive the economy, money would flock to government bonds as a place of safety. This dollar flow would occur at the expense of the mortgage market, causing rates to rise in this scenario, too.

Of course, it’s as difficult to predict post-Election market conditions as it is to predict the election itself but one thing is for certain — rates may rise and fall before the week is out, but credit guidelines will remain extra-tight. Getting approved for a mortgage won’t be any easier — no matter which party wins the Presidential Election.

Will the election drive the Dow?
Eamon Javers

Related Articles:

Mark Taylor | Arizona Home Loans | Blarming | Will You Listen to Me | Arizona Short Sales | Arizona Foreclosures | Arizona FHA Loans | Arizona USDA Loans | Arizona HUD Homes | Ariona VA Loans | Fix My Broken Credit | Arizona Mortgage | Arizona Short Sale | Power Ranch Bank Owned Homes

Your Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.