The Mortgage Moment

Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) is a mortgage lender’s insurance policy against highly-leveraged homeowners. It’s typically required when homeowner equity is less than 20 percent at the time of closing.

With PMI defaults up 40 percent over last year, though, private mortgage insurers are taking big losses.

They’re also taking outsized steps to prevent additional claims going forward and that is bad news for low-equity homeowners and home buyers.

The first PMI change new, higher insurance rates.

Like home insurers that adjust premiums after a worse-than-expected storm season, PMI insurers are raising mortgage insurance rates for all homeowners, regardless of credit history. The higher premiums are meant to offset the higher losses.

And, the second change is that some PMI firms are discontinuing coverage for “high-risk” transaction types. This includes purchases of non-owner occupied properties, and cash out refinances above 85 percent loan-to-value.

Both changes, however, point to similar conclusion about home loans: Home equity is increasingly important for today’s homeowner.

PMI rates are higher than they were six months ago and the rising number of defaults makes it likely that rates will rise again soon. As PMI rates increase, so does the cost of homeownership for people whose lenders require it.

As the stock market dips then jumps then dips again, it’s important to remember that markets are unpredictable and nobody knows what will happen tomorrow.

Unfortunately, that doesn’t stop the analysts from trying.

An obvious example comes from May of this year. As the price of oil crossed $120 per barrel on its way to an all-time high of $147, a Goldman Sachs analyst was quoted as saying that $200 oil was “likely”.

It seemed like a logical conclusion at the time.

Today, though, just five months after the prediction, the analyst’s “likely” scenario looks downright laughable. Oil is off by more than 40 percent since that day. And there’s hundreds of examples just like this, all around us.

Every day, economic experts and analysts are on television, telling us what’s going to happen in the future:

• They tell us when housing prices will reach a bottom
• They tell us when stock markets will rebound for good
• They tell us what the economy will do over the next 12 months

But none of them operate with the proverbial crystal ball — it’s all on “gut”.

Another example is from today’s CNNMoney.com. In the wake of the government’s banking response, a mortgage analyst predicts 7 percent interest rates over the next six months This would represent a 1.5 percent from the recent lows.

The rate prediction may be accurate, or it may not. We won’t know for another six months. But what we know today, though, is that mortgage rates are all over the place — just like the stock market. One day up, another day down. And nobody knows what they’ll do tomorrow.

Predicting the future has always been an inexact science but that won’t stop the experts from trying. And the experts are wrong as often as anybody else.

For homeowners with soon-to-adjust adjustable rate mortgages, the recent banking turmoil worldwide may lead to budgetary pain.

This is because most conforming ARMs made since 2003 are based on a borrowing cost called LIBOR and LIBOR is up an uncharacteristic 2 percent since September.

LIBOR stands for London Interbank Offered Rate and is the rate at which banks lend money to each other.

Historically, LIBOR has tracked the U.S. treasury market, plus a half-percent increase. This suggests that banks are only slightly less likely to default versus the U.S. government.

Today, that spread is close to 4.5 percent.

Since Lehman Brothers failed in September 2008, banks are fearful that their peers will meet a similar fate. Looking at the chart, we can see how LIBOR has responded.

The LIBOR spike is harming homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages because adjusted rates on conforming mortgages are often calculated by adding 2.250 percent to the current 12-month LIBOR rate.

On sub-prime mortgages, the adjustments are even more steep.

In general, though, as LIBOR rises, household payments rise, too, so if your home loan is adjustable and is due to reset soon, call or email your loan officer to talk about how LIBOR may impact your adjusted mortgage rate and payment.

For many homeowners, it’s less expensive to refinance into a new home loan that to just let the adjustment happen.

Throughout the feverish activity on Wall Street last week, mortgage bonds sold off with force, driving mortgage rates to their highest levels since July.

It was the fourth straight week in which mortgage rates worsened.

But, with the mortgage markets closed Monday, stock markets rallied to their largest one-day gain in history.

The Dow Jones’ gains are expected to push mortgage rates down Tuesday, but not nearly enough to recover last week’s losses. The market-wide carnage was mostly the result of a fear that has not been completely removed from investor psychology.

Until that fear is purged, therefore, expect mortgage rates to move on the dual basis economic data and market mentality. This will likely lead to rapid rate changes that will make shopping for a mortgage rate difficult.

This week, look for key inflation data including the Producer Price Index on Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index on Thursday.

Both measure the “cost of living” and reflect on price pressures in the economy. If costs are rising, it’s considered inflationary and that tends to edge mortgage rates higher.

In addition, Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence data will be released this week and carefully watched. If either (or both) show strength, markets may interpret the data to be inflationary as well, further adding upside pressure to mortgage rates.

Given the stock market’s recent performance, it’s not surprising that gasoline’s falling prices are garnering very little attention. That doesn’t make it any less relevant, however.

Since peaking in July, gas prices are off by 20 percent.

Falling gas prices are an important positive for the U.S. economy because less money spent at the pump means that more money is saved per household for everyday items including food and other staples.

In addition, consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the economy.

Therefore, falling gas prices may lessen the impact of a forecasted recession. Because Americans are notoriously poor savers, the extra cash-on-hand is likely to get spent which will, in turn, push the economy forward through the upcoming holiday shopping season.

So, just as inflation can bad for mortgage rates, so can recession. And while recession won’t always cause mortgage rates to rise, right now, it’s one of the factors driving rates higher. Falling gas prices may help keep that scenario at bay.

Buyers are returning to the housing market.

Each month, The National Association of REALTORS^® tracks homes under contract to sell, but whose closing has not yet happened. It calls them “pending sales” and publishes a monthly report to quantify them.

The Pending Home Sales report is important because it’s meant to predict future home sales activity. History shows that 80 percent of homes under contract will “close” within 60 days, and most of the rest will close within 120 days.

If Pending Home Sales are up, it’s believed, actual home sales will be up, too.

In August, Pending Home Sales jumped 7 percent from the month prior, returning to levels not seen in over a year.

The report’s strength suggests that buyers are returning to the housing market, continuing the trend that started in March. This is tremendously good news for sellers because more buyers on the hunt means more demand for homes which, in turn, leads sale prices higher.

The Pending Homes Sales report is not a perfect predictor, however. For one, it’s not measuring an actual sale — just the expectation of one. In addition, it only accounts for “used” homes, ignoring new construction.

But that aside, the strong uptick in August tells us that home buyers are re-engaging at a quickening pace and finding that “now” is a good time to buy real estate. When buyer demand rises, the real estate market as a whole isn’t usually that far behind.

The Federal Reserve made an “emergency rate cut” this morning, dropping the Fed Funds Rate by one half-percent to 1.500 percent.

The move is meant to stimulate the U.S. economy.

When the Federal Reserve changes the Fed Funds Rate, it often takes 9 months for the changes to work their way through the economy.

On a broad scale, therefore, we won’t know if the cut truly “worked” until Summer 2009.

But, as it relates to Americans in general, the rate cut spurred two immediate changes.

First, because Prime Rate is directly tied to the Fed Funds Rate, Prime Rate fell by 0.500 percent today, too. That means that interest rates on credit card debt and home equity lines of credit are now lower, reducing monthly interest costs for the majority of American households.

The second change is that mortgage rates are rising today.

The Fed’s actions today sparked optimism in some corners of Wall Street and money is now flowing into the stock market at the expense of bonds. Because mortgage rates move in the opposite direction from bond demand, mortgage rates are higher this morning.

As always, mortgage markets and mortgage rates remain on edge. Therefore, rates are subject to change. And quickly. If you see a rate and payment you like, be ready to commit to it because it likely won’t last long.

Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below the psychologically-important 10,000 level for the first time since 2004.

Despite the milestone-marker breach, however, there was a large group of Americans with reason to cheer. As stocks sold off, mortgage markets rallied to the benefit of home buyers and mortgage rates shoppers everywhere.

Conforming mortgages rates improved yesterday.

Most interesting here is that rates improved for the same reason that the stock market fell. Because of lingering concerns about the worlds’ economies, investors lost their collective appetite for risk Monday. In response, they sold their stock positions and parked the proceeds in the “safe haven” of U.S. government-backed debt.

The extra demand for safe investments pushed up the prices on mortgage bond which, in turn, pushed down mortgage bond rates.

Now, we can’t predict when the market’s risk appetite will return, but when it does, expect money to flow into stocks just as quickly as it left.

All year long, with respect to stock markets, it’s been either “everybody in” or “everybody out” and, for now, it’s everybody out. This is why mortgage rates fell Monday.

But, when the momentum shifts — and it will shift — mortgage rate shoppers would do well to be prepared. Be ready to lock that mortgage rate because as soon as the stock market reverses course, mortgage rates will head higher.

And if stocks recover as quickly as they tanked, expect mortgage rates to spike badly.

Congress approved the $700 billion “Bailout Bill” Friday, answering the question that dogged mortgage markets all week long:

Will they or won’t they pass it?

The uncertainty prior to the vote created huge market swings that ultimately sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its worst week since the 2001 terrorist attacks, while causing similar damage in the mortgage markets.

Mortgage rates worsened for the third straight week last week.

However, if we take the congressional vote out of the picture and look strictly at last week’s data, we would have expected mortgage rates to fall instead of rise.

For example, the economy shed another 159,000 jobs, bringing the 2008 total to 760,000 lost jobs. This reduces the likelihood of inflation and is normally good for mortgage rates. In addition, the U.S. dollar had its strongest week ever against the Euro. This usually attracts buyers to the mortgage bond market, driving down rates.

And third, Fannie Mae eliminated one of its mandatory loan fees. This improves mortgage bond pricing for borrowers, ultimately leading to lower rates.

But, mortgage rates rose didn’t fall last week and that shows how deep the economic uncertainty really ran. And this week, with the bill now passed into law, we would expect the market to turn its attention back to fundamentals. But it can’t.

Unfortunately, there’s no new data for release this week so, in the absence of data, markets should take their cues from the following sources:

1. The 8 scheduled Fed speakers, including Bernanke on Tuesday
2. Wednesday’s Pending Home Sales report
3. Persistent rumors of a “surprise” Fed Funds Rate cut

Regardless of to what markets react, though, be prepared for them to react swiftly and for mortgage rates to dip and spike — often in the same day.

In other words, a mortgage rate quote from the morning is likely to be “expired” by the afternoon so if you see a rate and payment that you like, consider locking it. It likely won’t last long.

In an effort to provide “the most market support possible”, Fannie Mae is cutting one of its mandatory loan fees by 0.250 percent, effective immediately.

Fannie Mae introduced the Adverse Market Delivery Charge in December 2007 to offset foreclosure and delinquency losses. The initial fee was a quarter-percent of the amount borrowed.

Then, as market conditions worsened, Fannie Mae doubled its across-the-board loan fee to 0.500 percent in August of this year.

As of today, the fee is back to its starting point.

Since the start of the 2008, Fannie Mae has made 21 separate changes to its mortgage guidelines. Most have been detrimental to borrowers, increasing the difficulty, or the cost, of qualifying for a conforming home loan.

Today’s change is among the few that are beneficial.

This morning, mortgage pricing is edging higher because of the looming Congressional vote and Wall Street’s reaction to the weak jobs report. The good news is that price changes could have been worse.

Fannie Mae’s Adverse Market Delivery Charge flip-flip is keeping rates from rising as high as they might have otherwise risen today.